Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Author: Carl Hvenmark Nilsson
This report outlines how a strategic pattern has emerged whereby Russia, as a perpetrator of and party to a conflict, dictates the conditions of the cease-fire and then actively pursues the violation of that agreement for its own political, military, and territorial gain. This serves a dual function: it undermines the international legal norm of cease-fires and provides a diplomatic “process” by which states lose interest and focus on solving the conflict, allowing the resulting freeze to be controlled by the Kremlin.
The report also provides an account of current realities on the ground with regard to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine, as well as the daily violations of the Minsk II accords. By mapping out almost a year of OSCE reports (one published each day), this document also makes a unique quantitative attempt to provide a long-term assessment of shots fired, access of international monitors, and the use of heavy weapons in Ukraine.
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